週五(10/25)1. 開擴人脈成功術 2.不吃早餐 可能死得早!

板區橋文化路一段421巷11弄1號 (陽光甜味咖啡館)

新埔捷運站1號出口 旁邊7-11巷子進入20公尺 看到夏朵美髮左轉    PM 7:00--9:30

開擴人脈成功術

Successful Networking Tips     Kangan institute

Networking. Everyone does it but how do you do it well?

Many people believe that networking during a job search means calling everyone and asking them for a job. People associate networking with being pushy and overbearing. Some people tend to hide away from networking because they don’t want to be labeled as this type of person. Networking is a two way street, it is a way of getting to know someone better and finding ways they might be able to help you and how you can help them in return. Click here to see full list of TAFE courses.

A professional networking event is a great opportunity to present yourself, make new connections and even find yourself a new job. Current research shows that a large number of jobs are filled through networking. Successful networkers display a sincere interest in their networking contacts and work hard to develop a relationship, establish their credibility and share their information and knowledge. To become a successful networker, you should follow the belief that everyone has something to learn and gain.

Networking is an ongoing process, it requires persistence, attention, organisation and good will. Incorporate the art of networking into your job search and you will gain opportunities and build relationships that will last a lifetime. Demonstrate your value to potential clients and employers with these simple successful networking tips:

1. Meet People Through Other People

The best and easiest way to meet people is through referrals. Stick around with the people you already know and who know the people you are looking to meet. Being introduced through them or joining in with their conversations you will very likely receive a warm welcome and introduction to the person you wanted an introduction to. This is a similar effect to LinkedIn through their online introduction tool, or even through joining the right circle at an event with somebody you know.

2. Leverage Social Media

Social media is an effective way to get to know important contacts better and without the pressure of a face to face meeting that you may not be prepared for. Seek out like-minded or key contacts you would like to know better within your LinkedIn profile, Google Plus, Twitter and more. Try commenting on a link they post or responding to a comment they make, start a conversation with them and offer them value in return. When you have the opportunity to meet them in person it will be easier to reference previous communications with them.

3. Don’t Ask For A Job

Networking is not asking everyone you know for a job, in fact, when you network you should never ask someone for a job. You should ask people for information that will assist you in your job search. Your main networking goal should be to build a relationship and establish rapport so when a potential opportunity may arise in the future, your contact may be willing to refer you.

4. Use Your Resume as a Tool for Advice

Another easy yet highly effective way to network during a job search is to ask others who you have established a relationship with to review your resume and give you feedback on how to improve it. Using this technique is valuable for a number of reasons. When reviewing your resume they will discover your work history, your previous titles, your objectives and many things they may not yet know about you. They may remember a company or a connection that your background may be perfectly suited to.

5. Don’t Take Up Too Much Time

Before you start networking, be sure to have an agenda and keep the meeting on track. Time is money and people are never happy with someone that takes up too much of their time. By planning out your meeting ahead of time, you establish your professionalism, you gain credibility and cover all the critical topics you wanted to cover. .

6. Let The Other Person Speak

When networking, be sure that you don’t do all the talking. The key to being a good conversationalist is being a good listener. If you have asked another person for advice or their opinion, make sure they have the opportunity to offer it and tell you. Or perhaps they are looking for you to add value to their work. If you do all the talking, the person may feel you are uninterested in what they have to say and unsure what action to take with the information you have supplied.

  

不吃早餐 可能死得早!

New Study Says Skipping Breakfast Can Significantly Shorten Your Lifespan

Diana Bruk 

There’s a reason why your parents used to tell you that breakfast is the most important meal of the day. According to a new study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, when it comes to heart health, skipping breakfast has disastrous effects.

Researchers from the University of Iowa collected data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey on 6,550 adults between the ages of 40 to 75. The data they used spanned 1988 to 1994, with an average follow-up of 18 years. Among those observed, 59 percent ate breakfast every day, 25 percent ate breakfast some days, 11 percent rarely ate breakfast, and 5 percent never did. The researchers found that those who skipped breakfast altogether had an 87 percent greater risk of death from cardiovascular disease than those who started their day off with a meal.

“Breakfast is traditionally believed as the most or at least one of the most important meals of the day, but there [is] not much data available to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to this belief. Our paper is among the ones that provide evidence to support long-term benefits,” Dr. Wei Bao, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Iowa and lead author of the study, told CNN.

In a press release, Bao noted that skipping breakfast was associated with elevated blood pressure and changes in appetite, causing a person to not feel full and overeat later in the day. This leads to multiple cardiovascular risk factors, according to Bao, including diabetes, hypertension, and lipid disorders. “Our findings are in line with and supported by previous studies that consistently showed that skipping breakfast is related to those strong risk factors for cardiovascular death,” he told CNN.

The University of Iowa study does have some limitations, most notably that it only establishes an association between skipping breakfast and death from cardiovascular disease, rather than proving that one causes the other. It also doesn’t specify what any of the participants actually ate for breakfast, which is significant, given that a bowl of oatmeal with blueberries or a vegetable omelet with a side of avocado is much more heart-healthy than fried chicken and waffles, for example. But, of course, you didn’t need a study to tell you that!

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周三(10/23) 1.好習慣帶來好運 2.書籍介紹--練習讓自己更快樂

板區橋文化路一段421巷11弄1號 (陽光甜味咖啡館)

新埔捷運站1號出口 旁邊7-11巷子進入20公尺 看到夏朵美髮左轉    PM 7:00-9:30

好習慣帶來好運

Good Habits Attract Good Luck - Rich Habits Institute

Thomas C. Corley

I have a childhood friend, who was raised in a family of five. His father was a NYC school teacher, at a long ago time when public school teachers did not make much money. His mother was a homemaker. While they were not considered “poor”, they did struggle financially.

This friend of mine worked as a lifeguard during the summers in his high school and college years. He save nearly everything he made and was able to pay for college with those savings.

He worked for three years, after graduating college, in a large, prestigious CPA firm. He lived at home and commuted to NYC and saved a significant amount of his income. He decided to invest his savings in law school.

After graduating NYU law school, again on his own dime, he met his future. wife, who was also paying her way through NYU. Like my friend, she shared his savings Rich Habit. Thanks to frugal living and their savings Rich Habit, my friend was able to buy himself the freedom to leave his big company law position, along with its grueling hours and stress, to take a lower paying job with a smaller, publicly-held company.

After many years of working at this smaller company, it was acquired by a private equity company and my friend received a windfall. That good luck acquisition gave my friend the freedom to retire. He was only 52. All thanks to one Rich Habit – saving.

Good habits create a unique type of good luck called Opportunity Luck. The Opportunity Luck for my friend was the unexpected acquisition of his company. My friend, because of his smart money Rich Habits, was able to make choices that put him in a position to become the recipient of good luck.

One of the individuals in my Rich Habits study had the Poor Habit of spending too much money. In his case, he spent a lot of money gambling. His gambling Poor Habit forced him to liquidate all of the college savings his children had inherited from a deceased Uncle, in order to pay the bills at home. With the loss of that college money, his kids were unable to afford to go to college and became stuck in dead end jobs, as adults.

This person was eventually forced to turn his home over to the bank in foreclosure. He now rents a very small and very inexpensive apartment, alone and all but abandoned by his children. He still gambles what little money he has. His life is miserable and lonely. All thanks to one Poor Habit – gambling.

Bad habits create a unique type of bad luck called Detrimental Luck. The Detrimental Luck event that occurred for the individual in my study was the the foreclosure of his home and the loss of the love and affection of his children.

Habits, good or bad, create luck. The type of luck created depends on your habits. Good habits attract good luck and bad habits attract bad luck.

   

You Can Learn to Be Happy and More Optimistic. Really.    psychologytoday

The scientific study of what enables individuals to thrive and increase their levels of happiness is called Positive Psychology. This new field is based on the concept that people naturally seek to develop meaningful and fulfilling lives, and to encourage and support their best selves which leads to enhancing the love, work, and play in their lives and relationships.

The source of Positive Psychology movement dates back to William James and more recently, Martin Seligman who made it the theme of his 1998 American Psychological Association Presidential Address. Since then it has expanded and evolved.  Positive Psychology focuses on strengths and positive characteristics instead of on psycho-pathology and what’s not working in people’s lives. That is a significant departure from what psychology has historically focused on understanding.

What’s the point?  The point is that now there is a body of both research and clinical development to enhance your ability to cultivate the skills for creating positive emotional states and greater capability to enjoy life. One of those developments is the University of Berkeley’s course on happiness. This eight-week course (free to the general public) teaches the science and application of the principles of Positive Psychology.

If you are interested in learning more about this exciting new direction for yourself, click here and you can enroll at no cost, unless you want a certificate of completion.

　　只要跟對的人結婚，就會快樂？

　　婚姻破碎，就無法快樂？

　　只要有小孩，就會快樂？

　　單身，就無法快樂？

　　找對工作，就會快樂？

　　破產，就無法快樂？

　　有錢，就會快樂？

　　健康出狀況，就無法快樂？

　　夢想破滅後，就無法快樂？

　　輝煌歲月後，就無法快樂？

所有人都會遇到本書所描述的大部分特定挑戰或人生轉折，在這當中可能描寫出我們昨日、今日或明日的部分模樣。隨著年齡增長，責任與失去的事物逐漸累 積，人生變得更加複雜、更具挑戰性，有時候則令人更加困惑。在事情接踵而來之前，花時間仔細檢視我們人生的主要過程和標準，以及了解什麼會激起我們的反 應，這對我們是有益的。

透過本書提供的方案和良方，例如如何減緩適應、對抗逆境、追求新的目標、成長和成功等，每個人都能選擇邁向更充實的生活，並幫助自己過得更快樂與幸福。

提升快樂的六大心法：

　　1.心懷感激

　　2.自省，並且樂觀積極

　　3.常施善行

　　4.追求自己的生活和事業

　　5.肯定自己的價值和努力

　　6.盡情享受快樂時光

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周六(10/19)1.你的姿勢 影響著成功 2.你是 雪花族嗎?

星期六 聚會時間 晚上7:00-9:30

板橋區文化路一段421巷11弄1號 (陽光甜味咖啡館)

新埔捷運站1號出口 旁邊7-11巷子進入20公尺 看到夏朵美髮左轉

你的姿勢 影響著成功

3 Surprising Ways Your Posture Impacts Your Success

By Lisa Evans

You’ve probably heard that sitting is the new smoking. And American workers spend a lot of time sitting. But in addition to the health issues associated with a sedentary lifestyle, our bad posture can affect our health, mood, productivity, and even success.

According to data collected by Lumo Bodytech, maker of the Lumo Lift Posture Coach (a device that attaches to your shirt or bra strap about 1 inch from your collarbone and alerts you when you’re slouching, prompting you to correct your posture), the majority of American workers spend an average of only 36% of their workday in good posture. “Workers are spending as much as 38 minutes per hour slouching,” says Monisha Perkash, CEO of Lumo Bodytech. Women’s postures are 20% worse than men.

Sitting or standing with your head up and shoulders back, in what is often called a “powerful pose,” can help prevent back pain and improve your physical well-being, but also make you better at your job.

1. Good posture improves productivity.

Poor posture is associated with back pain, which is the second leading reason for visits to the doctor, outnumbered only by the common cold, according to the Cleveland Clinic. Poor posture-related back pain costs American employers over $7 billion a year and is the leading cause of disability for employees under the age of 45.

Proper posture contributes to productivity by keeping workers at the office and away from filing disability claims, but is also associated with other health benefits, including higher levels of energy, reduced incidences of migraine headaches, lower stress, and higher concentration. Since our most vital organs are located in our core, everything from circulation to breathing and digestion can be affected by posture, says Perkash. By sitting in a position in which these vital organs are compressed, we aren’t allowing our organs to function at their absolute capacity. But by opening up our chest and core by maintaining proper posture, organs are allowed to expand and operate normally, improving our overall health.

2. Posture boosts confidence.

The “powerful pose” releases chemicals in the body that can make you more confident. When we open our chest by pushing our shoulders back and lifting our head, testosterone, a hormone associated with greater confidence and power, is released, and cortisol, a hormone associated with stress, is lowered.

One Ohio State University study showed maintaining poor posture for 30 minutes significantly increases stress levels, depression, and fear, while holding yourself in an upright posture results in greater confidence and lower stress levels.

3. Posture improves your communication.

“Having poor posture detracts from your leadership,” says Perkash. In a 2012 TED Talk on posture, social psychologist Amy Cuddy showed how power posing can make you feel more confident. “In the animal kingdom, power and dominance is about expanding; making yourself look bigger,” she says. When animals feel powerless, they crunch up, making themselves appear small.

Cuddy says we mimic this behavior, standing tall with our hands on our hips when we’re feeling in control and when we want to exude dominance over someone else; and we slouch, sometimes even wrapping our arms around our bodies, when we feel self-doubt. Simply by changing our body language and engaging in this powerful pose, Cuddy says we can make ourselves feel more powerful and exude greater confidence to those around us, allowing us to be better leaders.

你是 雪花族嗎?

Don't call us snowflakes - it damages our mental health, say young people

Olivia Rudgard  telegraph.co.uk

Being called a "snowflake" is damaging to mental health, young people say.  Figures show that the majority of young people think the term is unfair - and even more think it could have a negative effect of its own.

The "snowflake generation" is a disparaging term now commonly used to refer to young people, who are perceived to be over-sensitive and intolerant of disagreement.

But research by insurance firm Aviva found that 72 per cent of 16-24 year-olds think the term is unfairly applied, while 74 per cent think it could have a negative effect on young people's mental health.

The figures also show that young people are more likely to have experienced stress, anxiety and depression in the last year.

Almost half of adults between 16 and 24 said they had experienced stress or anxiety, compared to just over a third of all UK adults.

Young adults were also more likely to be uncomfortable talking about a mental health problem, with one in three saying this compared to 27 per cent of all adults.

13 per cent also said they were experiencing a problem but had not sought help, compared to seven per cent of all adults.

The firm's medical expert, Dr Doug Wright, said the term could cause problems. “Our findings suggest that young adults are more likely to be experiencing mental health problems, so using a phrase which criticises this age group could add to this issue.

"Any term used disparagingly to a segment of the population is inherently negative.

“While young adults in particular appear to take offence to the ‘snowflake’ label, the majority of adults agree that the term is unfair and unhelpful, so it’s important that people consider how such labels are used, and the cumulative effect they could have on their recipients," he said.

The phrase, which originated in America, has particularly come to refer to universities and students who use "trigger warnings" to alert readers or listeners to potentially distressing material, and "safe spaces", which are meant to be free of certain opinions or ideas.

It is also used to imply that young people are less resilient than older generations and quicker to take offence.

It is thought to originate with US author Chuck Palahniuk's 1996 book Fight Club, which contains the line "You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake".

In an interview earlier this year he took credit for the term, adding: "My friends who teach in high school tell me that their students are very easily offended."

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週五(10/18)1. 毒醬油 2.騙術花招

板區橋文化路一段421巷11弄1號 (陽光甜味咖啡館)

新埔捷運站1號出口 旁邊7-11巷子進入20公尺 看到夏朵美髮左轉    PM 7:00--9:30

毒醬油

More than 1 in 4 soy sauce samples found with substance that can cause cancer, Hong Kong watchdog warns

Nikki Sun 

“Hongkongers consume soy sauce almost every day,” said Consumer Council Chief Executive Gilly Wong Fung-han, urging the Centre for Food Safety to look into the matter and regulate the amount of 4-methylimidazole allowed in food, taking reference from other countries.

Currently, there is no standard for the safety and quality of soy sauces and seasonings in Hong Kong, but, for example, California law requires that businesses put a warning on product packaging against consuming more than 29 micrograms of 4-methylimidazole per day, the council said.

The amount was found in roughly 2 millilitres – under half a teaspoon – of the soy sauce sample produced by Yu Pin King and 7 millilitres of Tung Chun’s King’s Dark Soy Source in the test.

Wong attributed the existence of the possible carcinogens in the soy sauce to a common practise aimed at increasing colour intensity of the products.

To achieve this, manufacturers often add caramel colourings to soy sauces during the browning process. The ingredients were found to contain a contaminant of 4-methylimidazole.

The use of certain types of caramel colourings in food and beverages has been under increasing scrutiny in recent years, as researches found “clear evidence of carcinogenic activity in animals” due to the intake of 4-methylimidazole.

However, Wong Ka-hing, associate director at Polytechnic University’s Food Safety and Technology Research Centre said a man would need to consume at least three litres of soy sauce per day to reach the level required for cancer in the animal test.

“The reason that Hong Kong does not have such regulations is probably because the risks are extremely low,”Wong said, adding California was the only state in the US to have such regulations.

In addition to the dubious substance, the overall quality of the city’s soy sauce products were also concerning.

When assessed by Taiwan Soy Sauce Standard, only one in four tested samples in the city reached its highest Grade A level, while 10 failed to meet the lowest requirements – with four of them produced by local brand Amoy.

While many soy sauces in the market claimed to be“naturally brewed”, three samples out of 21 such products exceeded the levulinic acid content limit to attach such a label.

The Food and Safety Centre said it was studying the soy sauce samples from the survey, and would follow those which failed to comply with current regulations.

Customs said all the trade descriptions written on the packaging – including whether the soy sauces are “naturally brewed” or not – must correctly describe the product in question.

 

騙術花招

Tricks Con Artists Use to Win Your Trust

Brandon Specktor rd.com

Con artists are masters of trust

You can learn a lot about trust from the people who violate it for a living. “A hood planning a bank holdup might case the treasury for rudimentary facts, but in the end he depends on his gun. A con artist’s only weapon is his brain,” says celebrity con man Frank Abagnale, author of the memoir Catch Me If You Can. So what do Abagnale and other con artists know that you don’t? For starters, how to earn the confidence of strangers in seconds flat. Make sure you’re aware of these 10 online scams and how to avoid them.

Con artists target the vulnerable

If you’ve ever been scammed (and most of us have, in one way or another) it doesn’t mean you’re stupid—it only means you were vulnerable. That’s because scam artists play to emotions, not intelligence. “People who are going through times of extreme life change, for instance, are very vulnerable to con artists because you lose your equilibrium,” says science writer Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game: Why We Fall for It … Every Time. “You end up more susceptible to all types of cons when you, for instance, have lost a job… [but] positive changes also make you vulnerable—you start being more credulous of good things in general.” Other easy targets? The lonely, the elderly, and the insecure (usually men) are notoriously easy targets. Millennials need to be aware of these financial scams.

Con artists get you talking—a lot

The most successful cons hinge on desire—what can the con artist offer the victim that will make them abandon rational thought for the promise of fantasy? The best way to discover someone’s desires: Ask. “Victims don’t ask a lot of questions; they answer a lot of questions,” writes a retired telemarketing scammer in this shocking true confession. “Victims don’t look for why the offer is a scam; they look for why the offer will make them money. They want you to make them feel good so they can pull the trigger.” A scammer not only needs to be a master actor but a master listener. And they have tricks for that, too. Watch out! These phone call scams can steal your money.

Con artists say your name

“It is crazy how much more we will like someone if they remember our name,” Konnikova says. “And you can fake this: If I’ve looked up your picture and I can say, ‘Hey, [name], do you remember me?’ you are not going to say, ‘I don’t know who the hell you are.’ You will fake it, and you might even convince yourself that you have met me in the past.” A name creates a sense of familiarity, but it can also serve as a distraction. Professional card hustlers might even say your name to draw your attention away from their mischievous hands.

Con artists mimic your posture

Numerous studies show that mirroring body language increases empathy. It makes salesmen more likely to close deals, and it allows con men to build subconscious bonds with their victims. Retired con artist Simon Lovell, author of How to Cheat at Everything: A Con Man Reveals the Secrets of the Esoteric Trade of Cheating, Scams, and Hustles, admits to drawing people in by mirroring their body language at bars. Mirroring creates a feeling of familiarity and belonging, and most importantly to scammers, it breaks down mental defenses by allowing access to their victims’ physical space.

Con artists show their “flaws”

Con men tend to be great talkers. “Many men kissed the Blarney Stone,” former scammer Lovell likes to say, “a con man has swallowed it.” And speech can be manipulated just as effectively as body language to build a quick sense of familiarity between scammer and victim. A good con man will put his victim at ease by telling stories that reveal his own anxieties, faults, and desires, thereby fabricating what feels like common ground. As research shows, we’re quick to trust people we see as imperfect (like ourselves).

his four-word phrase when you pick up the phone, hang up immediately.

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周六(10/12)1.怎知她喜歡你? 2.貓能預測死亡!

星期六 聚會時間 晚上7:00-9:30

板橋區文化路一段421巷11弄1號 (陽光甜味咖啡館)

新埔捷運站1號出口 旁邊7-11巷子進入20公尺 看到夏朵美髮左轉

怎知她喜歡你?

How to Know if a Girl Likes You

Co-authored by Elvina Lui

She glances your way, laughs at your jokes, and acts nervously around you. You’re not sure if she’s flirting, being friendly, or is simply uninterested. Whether you’ve had a crush on a girl for ages and are dying to know if the feeling is mutual or you just want to know if she likes you for curiosity’s sake, there are a few nearly foolproof ways to tell whether a girl likes you or not.

Understanding Body Language Cues

    Look at her stance. When a girl likes you, she will face in your direction. If a girl has her torso turned towards you in an open manner, this means that she is confident talking with you. If she has a closed body position, namely crossed arms or legs, she may be shy or nervous to talk to you or she may simply be creating a barrier to signal that she is uninterested.[1]

        When she is sitting with her legs crossed, watch her feet. If they are pointed towards you, it might mean that she likes you and wants to get closer to you.

    Open stances indicate relaxation and comfort. Couples counselor and MFT, Elvina Lui, tells us: "Generally speaking a girl will stand closer to you and will have more relaxed body language if she feels comfortable around you — for example, she'll have relaxed shoulders and she won't cross her arms, But, everyone's personality and cultural upbringing is different, so don't take it as a sign she's not into you if this isn't the case."

    Pay attention to eye contact. If a girl likes you, she will tend to either hold her gaze on you for a few seconds or glance down the moment your eyes make contact with hers. Either of these responses could mean that she likes you. If she pulls away quickly, it often means she is nervous or not ready to reveal her true intentions yet, but she may still like you.

        When a girl likes you, her pupils might dilate, though this will be hard to tell.

        If you happen to glance at the girl and you see her staring back at you, this could mean that she likes you.

   

    Notice if she touches you or tries to get closer. When a girl likes you, she will often try to touch you, as this is a noticeable yet still subtle way to flirt. It allows a girl to size up how responsive you are. She may touch your arm when you say something funny, “accidentally” brush your shoulder or hands with hers, or gently place her hand on your knee.

        Not all girls will feel comfortable reaching out using touch. In this case, don't assume that she doesn't like you just because she doesn't try to touch you. She may be too nervous to do so. If you like her, don't be shy––break the touch barrier yourself and see how she responds.

        She may also find other reasons to touch you, such as softly punching your arm. These "one-of-the-mates" moves can be a thinly disguised way of getting closer to you without it being too evident to your friends and hers.

   

    Pay attention to whether she randomly hugs you.

    See if she mirrors your moves. If a girl imitates you - for example, if you run your fingers through your hair and you notice her do the same a few seconds later - she may be subconsciously mirroring your movements. This can be a tell that she likes you.

   

    Notice if she’s playing with her hair. Gently twirling strands of her hair or partaking in other grooming behaviors like running her hands through her hair could be signs of flirting.

  

貓能預測死亡!

The Cat Who Could Predict Death

Taylor Grote/Unsplash

Of the many small humiliations heaped on a young oncologist in his final year of fellowship, perhaps this one carried the oddest bite: A 2-year-old black-and-white cat named Oscar was apparently better than most doctors at predicting when a terminally ill patient was about to die. The story appeared, astonishingly, in The New England Journal of Medicine in the summer of 2007. Adopted as a kitten by the medical staff, Oscar reigned over one floor of the Steere House nursing home in Rhode Island. When the cat would sniff the air, crane his neck and curl up next to a man or woman, it was a sure sign of impending demise. The doctors would call the families to come in for their last visit. Over the course of several years, the cat had curled up next to 50 patients. Every one of them died shortly thereafter.

No one knows how the cat acquired his formidable death-sniffing skills. Perhaps Oscar’s nose learned to detect some unique whiff of death — chemicals released by dying cells, say. Perhaps there were other inscrutable signs. I didn’t quite believe it at first, but Oscar’s acumen was corroborated by other physicians who witnessed the prophetic cat in action. As the author of the article wrote: “No one dies on the third floor unless Oscar pays a visit and stays awhile.”

The story carried a particular resonance for me that summer, for I had been treating S., a 32-year-old plumber with esophageal cancer. He had responded well to chemotherapy and radiation, and we had surgically resected his esophagus, leaving no detectable trace of malignancy in his body. One afternoon, a few weeks after his treatment had been completed, I cautiously broached the topic of end-of-life care. We were going for a cure, of course, I told S., but there was always the small possibility of a relapse. He had a young wife and two children, and a mother who had brought him weekly to the chemo suite. Perhaps, I suggested, he might have a frank conversation with his family about his goals?

But S. demurred. He was regaining strength week by week. The conversation was bound to be “a bummah,” as he put it in his distinct Boston accent. His spirits were up. The cancer was out. Why rain on his celebration? I agreed reluctantly; it was unlikely that the cancer would return.

When the relapse appeared, it was a full-on deluge. Two months after he left the hospital, S. returned to see me with sprays of metastasis in his liver, his lungs and, unusually, in his bones. The pain from these lesions was so terrifying that only the highest doses of painkilling drugs would treat it, and S. spent the last weeks of his life in a state bordering on coma, unable to register the presence of his family around his bed. His mother pleaded with me at first to give him more chemo, then accused me of misleading the family about S.’s prognosis. I held my tongue in shame: Doctors, I knew, have an abysmal track record of predicting which of our patients are going to die. Death is our ultimate black box.

In a survey led by researchers at University College London of over 12,000 prognoses of the life span of terminally ill patients, the hits and misses were wide-ranging. Some doctors predicted deaths accurately. Others underestimated death by nearly three months; yet others overestimated it by an equal magnitude. Even within oncology, there were subcultures of the worst offenders: In one story, likely apocryphal, a leukemia doctor was found instilling chemotherapy into the veins of a man whose I.C.U. monitor said that his heart had long since stopped.

But what if an algorithm could predict death? In late 2016 a graduate student named Anand Avati at Stanford’s computer-science department, along with a small team from the medical school, tried to “teach” an algorithm to identify patients who were very likely to die within a defined time window. “The palliative-care team at the hospital had a challenge,” Avati told me. “How could we find patients who are within three to 12 months of dying?” This window was “the sweet spot of palliative care.” A lead time longer than 12 months can strain limited resources unnecessarily, providing too much, too soon; in contrast, if death came less than three months after the prediction, there would be no real preparatory time for dying — too little, too late. Identifying patients in the narrow, optimal time period, Avati knew, would allow doctors to use medical interventions more appropriately and more humanely. And if the algorithm worked, palliative-care teams would be relieved from having to manually scour charts, hunting for those most likely to benefit.

Avati and his team identified about 200,000 patients who could be studied. The patients had all sorts of illnesses — cancer, neurological diseases, heart and kidney failure. The team’s key insight was to use the hospital’s medical records as a proxy time machine. Say a man died in January 2017. What if you scrolled time back to the “sweet spot of palliative care” — the window between January and October 2016 when care would have been most effective? But to find that spot for a given patient, Avati knew, you’d presumably need to collect and analyze medical information before that window. Could you gather information about this man during this pre-window period that would enable a doctor to predict a demise in that three-to-12-month section of time? And what kinds of inputs might teach such an algorithm to make predictions?

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